Municipal Strategy Report - February 2012

By Analytical Services Division on February 10th, 2012

"Loonie Tunes?"

In February's Municipal Strategy Report we salute the Canadians for their successful Yankee bond issue in early February, their budgetary control, and their superior economic performance. We speculate that the U.S. would be better off if we abandoned hockey and focused on getting the right things done in Washington.

Municipal Strategy Report - February 2012 (PDF) »

 

As a resource rich country, Canada, along with Australia, New Zealand and the Scandinavian countries, among others, have continued to feed the appetites of global economic powerhouses like China, India and Brazil.  In limiting the economic fallout, our friends to the north have spared themselves an escalation in their budgetary problems.  Well played. 

Publication Highlights:

  • A variety of New York State related information as part of this month's "geographic focus."  New York bonds as a whole have maintained the same advantage to California bonds over the past year despite generally better economic, debt, and budgetary performance.  We include the New York "State of the State" briefing.
  • Detailed municipal default data over the last 3+ years for the true data lover.  As we have said before: "The data does not provide any indications that predict catastrophic municipal defaults..."
  • An updated economic and interest rate forecast using our Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) and Loop Simultaneous Equations (LSE) models.  Bottom line: 2012 is very likely to best 2011 by a small, but noticeable, amount.